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COVID-19 projections assuming full social distancing through May 2020

Nobody has more than an educated guess. My wife the nurse turned me onto a site that combines these educated guesses with historical data and computer simulation to produce charts that approximate how things will go.

The charts all assume we pay attention to the various stay at home orders. It predicts daily and total deaths. The colored areas are maximum and minimum likelihoods. It predicts demand for general hospital beds, ICU beds, and ventilators. Since we know what is available right now, it also tells us what the shortfall will be.

At the top is a box to click on that produces a drop-down to pick the state you are interested in or keep the entire United States average. Each state page gives a rundown of current social distancing policies in place.

Something to think about is that deaths can be used as a proxy for infection rates. If mortalities peak on April 15th, we can say the rate of new infections peaked very roughly 2 weeks earlier. That’s right now.

States back east will hit their mortality peaks in just a couple weeks. New York will peak somewhere around  April 12. Texas will peak very roughly May, 10. But note… the CDC estimates assume social distancing. New York has that. Texas has almost no such policies in place. If Texas does not implement appropriate policies as a state, the citizens, businesses, and local governments must implement social distancing policies on their own or Texas could be much, much worse.

  • Stay home. Stay safe. When you do go out, go out responsibly. Avoid other people.
  • Wear a mask or other barrier over your nose and mouth. (If you sew, make your own. Don’t deplete the supply needed by hospitals.) If you can’t sew one up, a painter’s mask, bandanna or scarf is far better than nothing.
  • Keep that 2-meter zone clear and if someone is coughing, stay even farther away.
  • Don’t touch your face unless you have washed your hands. Wash your hands thoroughly after touching a shared surface.
  • If someone coughs on you, toss those clothes directly in the washer, hot water, wash all exposed skin and sanitize glasses, etc. Anything that cannot be washed/sterilized, let sit outside for 3 days.
  • Leave your shoes outside, or sanitize them. Your soles have probably been stepping on it.
  • Assume you are contaminated and/or infected and change your behavior to avoid transmitting.

My guess is that lockdown will definitely be over by the end of May and earlier in some places. That’s a guess. Educated by other people’s guesses, historical data, and a handy-dandy computer simulation.

A tutorial on how to make your own fabric face mask from common household materials.

This is what Calfornia is looking like:

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